Jayson Werth is one of the best right fielders in all of baseball. He is a five-tool players who hits for average and power, can steal bases, and who has a cannon from the outfield.
He's an All-Star caliber player and over the past three seasons has become a main-stay in the middle of the Phillies lineup.
For the fist time in his career, Werth is in line to make a lot of money.
And now the Phillies have a major decision to make.
With most of its core locked up, Werth has become the first major player in this era of Phillies baseball to become a free agent.
The Phillies face the biggest decision they have faced since their four year run of division titles started in 2007.
Do they try to sign Werth, sacrificing money they could spend elsewhere or do they let Werth walk?
Tough decisions.
The Phillies will certainly kick the tires on seeing what Werth and agent Scott Boras are looking for in terms of money and years. My guess is that the Phillies could pay Werth what he wants per year but that they will hesitate in signing him to the amount of years he is going to want to sign for.
There are two comparable contracts to look at.
The first one is a four year deal that Jason Bay signed with the Mets for $66 million. The second is a seven year deal Matt Holliday signed with the Cardinals for $120 million.
Werth is 31, so he is not going to get the seven years Holliday got. However, my guess is that he will want more than the four years Bay received.
So the first question is, how many years are the Phillies willing to go? My guess is four.
The second question is, how many years is Werth going to ask for? My guess is five to six.
Because of that, I don't think Werth will be back in a Phillies uniform.
Cons of not resigning Werth
If the Phillies do not sign Werth, it would be a major blow to the middle of their lineup. He was a power hitting right handed hitter in a left heavy lineup. He hit behind and protected Ryan Howard.
In the past three seasons Werth has hit 120 home runs and has knocked in 406 runs. Keep in mind, part of 2008 was spent in a platoon with Geoff Jenkins.
You don't just replace that kind of productivity with the snap of a finger.
Without Werth, the Phillies would either sign a lesser free agent or go with a platoon of Ben Francisco and Domonic Brown. Francisco is not a bad player and Brown is going to be a stud, although I'm not certain he is ready contribute as much as the Phils would need him to.
This is just not the same as having Werth's bat in the lineup.
Another thing to consider - who would bat behind Howard? No matter who it was, Howard would likely see less pitches to hit than he does now because whoever hits behind him is not going to pose the same threat Werth did.
With Werth gone, Howard's production could take a dip.
Pros of not resigning Werth
If the Phillies choose not to give Werth what he wants, they will have more money to spend on the bullpen, in which they currently have five openings. Only Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, and Danys Baez are under contract.
The Phillies will try to bring Chad Durbin and Jose Contreras back, but other than that they would likely be stuck with the hope that some younger guys step up into the remaining reliever roles. That's an unknown.
They could also sign a low cost, high reward reliever, which has worked with Contreras and Chan Ho Park in 2008. Again, this is an unknown.
Having so many unknown pieces in the bullpen could also hurt the Phillies starting pitching.
Aces Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels are coming off seasons in which they had heavy workloads. This was party due to the inconsistency of middle relievers and the fact that manager Charlie Manual could not trust them.
Having unknowns in the bullpen again could cause Manual to again use his starters late into games, thus causing them to run out of gas for a long playoff run rather than being fresh.
The Phillies will also need to consider what Werth's production will be over the course of a contract. Is he still going to be the same player five years from now when he is in his mid thirties? Probably not.
With the entire starting lineup 30 or over, Werth would get old right along with the other Phillies starters.
Where would that leave them for the future? With a lot of high priced veterans on the downside of their careers. That is not a good position to be in.
Phillies GM Ruben Amaro has talked about sprinkling youth into the lineup. This is something he will have to consider.
Final thoughts
Not having Werth would definitely hurt in the short term. Having him under control for too many years would hurt in the long term.
I'd be for the Phillies signing him to a four year deal but nothing longer.
The Phillies don't
need Werth. The Giants won the World Series this year with who in their outfield? Exactly.
Would Werth help - yes. But the Phillies must consider at what cost, what else that prevents them from doing, and what that does for a team that is already aging.
It's a tough decision and my gut tells me he will get 5-6 years from the Red Sox - something the Phillies will be un-willing to do.
